Econoday Report: Treasury Budget 13, 2007

2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

Resource Center » U.S. & International Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar

Treasury Budget

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care

Released on 11/13/07 For Oct 2007

Treasury Budget - Level
Actual	$-55.6B
Consensus	$-59.0B
Consensus Range	$-60.0B to $-50.0B
Previous	$ 111.6 B

Highlights
The Treasury's deficit for October came in at $55.6 billion vs. a deficit in October 2006 of $49.3 billion. October is the first month of the Treasury's fiscal year, which so far is off to a bad start at an increase of 12.8 percent. The Congressional Budget Office said calendar timing inflated the month's deficit. Receipts were up 6.3 percent in the month to $178.2 billion against a rise of 7.7 percent for outlays at $233.7 billion.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a surplus in September of $111.6 billion, making for a fiscal year-to-date deficit of $162.8 billion, 34 percent below this time last year. A big reason for the improvement is slowing growth in outlays, at 2.8 percent in fiscal 2007 for the slowest rate 10 years. On the income side, taxes receipts were very strong, especially the dominant category of individual income taxes which is up 11.5 percent year-to-date. With the economy slowing, we may not be getting such good numbers for the rest of the year. The month of October typically shows a moderate deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of October has been $39.3 billion.

Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for October 07: -$59.0 billion
Range: -$60.0 billion to -$50.0 billion.

Trends

The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/11 5/10 6/12 7/12 8/10 9/13 10/11 11/13 12/12

Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov