The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 9/13/07 For Aug 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Calendar quirks made for a severe fiscal deficit in August, at $117.0 billion against expectations for $75 billion and a year-ago deficit of $64.7 billion. The first two days of the month fell on Saturday and Sunday with Labor Day following on Monday, three straight off days that pulled $43 billion of September payments into August. The Congressional Budget Office said September is likely to show a larger surplus as a result. Despite August's surprise, the year-to-date budget is still below the pace of fiscal 2006, at -$274.4 billion vs. -$304.4 billion. As of late August, the CBO expected the total fiscal year deficit to improve by $90 billion, to -$158 billion.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a deficit of $36.3 billion, compared to $33.2 billion in July 2006. Still, for year-to-date, the budget deficit is sharply below that for last year, $157.3 billion versus $239.6 billion. Looking ahead, the month of August typically shows a moderate deficit. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for August is $42.8 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for August 07: -$75.0 billion
Range: -$105.0 billion to -$60.0 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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