Econoday Report: Treasury Budget 12, 2007

2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

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Treasury Budget

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care

Released on 6/12/07 For May 2007

Treasury Budget - Level
Actual	$-67.7B
Consensus	$-70.0B
Consensus Range	$-71.0B to $-38.0B
Previous	$ 177.7 B

Highlights
Reflecting slowing receipts, the Treasury's deficit came in at $67.7 billion in May. The results narrowed the fiscal year-to-date improvement to 35 percent: $148.5 billion vs. $227.0 billion this time last year. In April, the year-to-date improvement was at 56 percent. Fiscal year-to-date receipts are up 8.0 percent, down from 11.2 percent in April. Rates of growth for both individual and corporate taxes eased back in May, in part due to the timing of tax processing that pulled receipts into April. Year-to-date outlays are up only 2.5 percent and an improvement from 3.2 percent in April. Improvement in the nation's fiscal deficit is one of the big stories of 2007 and may yet become a bigger story should economic growth, and higher tax receipts along with it, begin to pick up.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report for April showed that the Treasury's surplus in April came in higher than expected at $177.7 billion. The Treasury's deficit so far this fiscal year is well under a year ago, at $80.8 billion vs. $184.1 billion. However, slowing economic growth is putting improvement in the deficit at risk. Looking ahead, the month of May typically shows a moderate deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of May has been $45.5 billion.

Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for May 07: -$70.0 billion
Range: -$71.0 billion to -$38.0 billion.

Trends

The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/11 5/10 6/12 7/12 8/10 9/13 10/11 11/13 12/12

Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov