The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/11/07 For Mar 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Treasury's deficit in March proved slightly higher than expected, at $96.3 billion vs. an $85.3 billion deficit in the prior March. The latest deficit was swollen by higher tax refunds and timing of miscellaneous outlays including foreign aid to Egypt and Israel. Nevertheless, the fiscal year-to-date deficit is well under this time last year, at $258.4 billion vs. $302.9 billion. But the outlook for the budget deficit is uncertain given the risk of economic slowing and slowing in corporate tax payments. International trade data, the other side of the nation's economic imbalance, will be posted on Friday.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a budget deficit in February of $120.0 billion vs. a budget deficit in February 2006 of $119.2 billion. Fiscal year-to-date the budget deficit, reflecting strong tax receipts, is down a very sharp 26 percent. The month of March typically shows a moderate deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of March has been $49.6 billion. March 2006 posted a deficit of $85.3 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for March 07: -$89.0 billion
Range: -$100.0 billion to -$75.0 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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