The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/12/07 For Jan 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Boosted by rising tax receipts that are well in excess of rising outlays, the Treasury posted a budget surplus of $38.2 billion in January, slightly below expectations but well above last January's $21.0 billion surplus. Fiscal year to date, the nation's budget deficit is $42.2 billion, less than half the $98.4 billion gap this time last year. A narrower budget deficit means reduced supply of Treasuries, a big plus for the Treasury market.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a surplus of $44.5 billion in December, sharply higher than the 10 year average surplus of $11.5 billion that is typical for that month. The month of January typically shows a sizeable surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of January has been $33.1 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for January 07: $40.0 billion (surplus)
Range: $35.0 billion to $48.0 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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