The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 1/12/07 For Dec 2006 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Treasury posted a much larger-than-expected surplus of $44.5 billion in December, helping to narrow the fiscal-year to date deficit to $80.4 billion vs. $119.4 billion a year ago. The improvement once again was centered in corporate tax receipts, more than offsetting increases in Medicare outlays. Also helping was the absence of hurricane relief payments and a special receipt for the auctioning of the electromagnetic spectrum. Whether the budget gap continues to narrow will depend largely on the strength of tax receipts, which may be promising given rising signs of economic strength including this morning's retail trade report.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget posted a deficit of $75.6 billion in November. Looking ahead, the month of December typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of December has been $11.5 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for December 06: -$25.0 billion
Range: -$28.0 billion to -$20.0 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
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