The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed, but until recently, market players have believed that the survey primarily covers the manufacturing sector. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. The NAPM - Chicago is considered a leading indicator of the ISM manufacturing index. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/31/08 For Oct 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Chicago purchasers report swung back in line with other data, plunging nearly 20 points from a solid 56.7 in September to a deeply recessionary 37.8 in October. Disastrous data on orders point to perhaps deeper lows in the months ahead: new orders fell more than 20 points to 32.5 and backlog orders fell nearly 15 points to 39.0. Production slowed violently, down more than 40 points to 30.9 and left Chicago firms holding inventories which jumped nearly 20 points to 56.5. Employment also retreated, down about 8 points to 41.5, and it looks to retreat further in the months ahead. The evaporation in demand made for a steep drop in prices for energy and raw materials as the prices paid index fell nearly 30 points to 53.7.
Thirty points this way and 30 points that way underscores the volatility of this report which nevertheless hints at deepening trouble for the whole economy. There was no reaction to the report.
The NAPM-Chicago purchasing managers' index has been an outlier compared to other regional surveys, posting a second month of healthy growth in September. The Chicago purchasers' index dipped 1.2 points in September to a still very solid 56.7. This reflected a big jump in production and significant improvement in employment. New and backlogs orders indexes, however, slowed to just over break even.
NAPM-Chicago Consensus Forecast for October 08: 48.0
Range: 42.0 to 48.0
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The NAPM-Chicago Survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing activity. Consequently, the NAPM-Chicago survey often moves together with the ISM index, but is reported one day in advance. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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