The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/20/08 For Mar 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
The slowdown is continuing in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing region where the Philadelphia Fed's business activity index is negative for a fourth month in a row, at -17.4 level vs. -24.0 in February. There's little solace in the improvement as the negative reading nevertheless indicates month-to-month contraction as more respondents continue to report slowing than growth. New orders, arguably the most important reading in the report, show less severe but still similar results, at -9.3 vs. -10.9. In especially bad news, employment is back in negative territory, at -4.7 vs. February's 2.5. Inventories and unfilled orders are declining and delivery times are quickening, all reflecting the slowdown in production. Not reflecting any slowdown are prices which are showing yet further pressure on the input side, at 54.4 vs. 46.6, and stubborn pressure on the output side, at 21.1 vs. 24.3.
These results are quite poor with even the 6-month outlook, which is usually upbeat, still negative at -0.5. Recession seems to have taken hold in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector, clearly pointing to wider recession throughout the nation's manufacturing sector. Treasury yields dipped in reaction to the results.
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index has been showing the scariest numbers for the manufacturing sector, plunging to minus 24.0 in February. March is likely to stay in negative territory as new orders contracted for a second month, coming in at minus 10.9, following a minus 15.2 reading in January. Nonetheless, price pressure remains high as February prices paid stood at 46.6 while prices received was 24.3.
Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for March 08: -20.0
Range: -20.2 to -5.2
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}