The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/21/07 For Jun 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey is showing life, at 18.0 in June vs. 4.2 May and compared with a prior run of near flat readings. New orders really picked up, at 18.3 vs. 8.7 to indicate rising shipments and perhaps even rising employment in the months ahead.
June shipments, reflecting prior weakness in orders, showed less month-to-month growth than the prior month at 5.0 vs. May's 9.3. Supply chain data indicate that conditions are clear with inventories down, at -8.2, and delivery times easing, at -3.5. Employment did show month-to-month improvement but not very much and less than in May, at 5.6 vs. 12.9.
Prices paid showed less but still heavy pressures, at 29.7 vs. 32.3. But pressure on the input side is still well contained as prices received showed only modest pressure at 5.1 vs. 2.2.
Treasuries dipped briefly in reaction to the report, while the dollar firmed very slightly. But the report adds to building evidence, led by the ISM manufacturing survey, that momentum in the manufacturing is rebuilding.
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index rose to 4.2 in May, up from an essentially flat reading of 0.2 in April. Manufacturing has been generally more positive in the regional surveys than in the national data. On the inflation front, the Philly Fed input prices index jumped to 32.3 from 24.3 in April but much of the boost was energy related. Output prices have been stable with readings of 2.2 in May and 5.2 in April.
Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for June 07: 7.5
Range: 5.0 to 10.0
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The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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