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ISM Non-Mfg Survey
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Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
12/3/08
For
Nov 2008 |
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Composite Index - Level
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| Actual |
37.3
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| Consensus |
43.0
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| Consensus Range |
37.0
to
46.5
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| Previous |
44.4
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Highlights
Business conditions are deteriorating quickly, the latest indication from the ISM's non-manufacturing report that showed wide declines across readings. The headline composite index fell more than 7 points to 37.3 with new orders, perhaps the most important index of all, falling more than 8 points to 35.4. The business activity index, equivalent to a production index, fell more than 11 points to 33.0. The employment index fell more than 10 points to 31.3 with backlogs down nearly 5 points to 39.5. Prices paid, as it did in the ISM manufacturing report, confirms the extent of the weakness, down nearly 15 points to 36.6 in a drop reflecting declining demand for goods and services including declining demand for energy. Many of the readings in this report, as well as month-to-month changes, are record lows. Stocks dipped and money moved into Treasuries in immediate reaction to the results.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey fell back into negative territory in October, declining to 44.4 from 50.2 in September. The composite index has been below the breakeven level of 50 for 6 of 10 months this year. As with the manufacturing index, the non-manufacturing prices paid fell sharply - by nearly 20 points to 53.
Composite index Consensus Forecast for November 08: 43.0 Range: 37.0 to 46.5
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Trends
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Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial
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