2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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ISM Non-Mfg Survey
Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. Why Investors Care

Released on 11/5/08 For Oct 2008
Composite Index - Level
 Actual 44.4  
 Consensus 47.5  
 Consensus Range 42.0  to  50.5  
 Previous 50.2  

Highlights
The biggest news from a very weak ISM non-manufacturing report is a more than 3 point drop in the employment index to 41.5. This is a record low for the index which tracks very closely with actual payroll changes and points, as do a host of other indicators, to big trouble for Friday's employment report. Other readings included a nearly 6 point drop in the headline composite index to 44.4, and similar drops in the business activity and new orders indexes. Prices paid fell back nearly 20 points to 53.4, further confirmation of weak demand and pointing away from the risk of inflation. Money moved into Treasuries and out of the dollar in immediate reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey surprisingly held relatively steady in September, slipping only 4 tenths to a 50.2. Essentially, conditions were flat in both September and August. But the economy has worsened since with job losses increasing and consumer confidence hitting a record low, and mass layoffs have increased - suggesting that the non-manufacturing sector is weakening.

Composite index Consensus Forecast for October 08: 47.5
Range: 42.0 to 50.5
Trends
[Chart] Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

2008 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/4 2/5 3/5 4/3 5/5 6/4 7/3 8/5 9/4 10/3 11/5 12/3
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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