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ISM Non-Mfg Survey
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Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
4/3/08
For
Mar 2008 |
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Composite Index - Level
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| Actual |
52.2
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| Consensus |
49.0
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| Consensus Range |
47.5
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51.1
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| Previous |
50.8
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Highlights
Steady readings in the March ISM report on the non-manufacturing sector lower the risk that the economy has tipped into recession. The ISM's composite index was little changed, up 3 tenths from February at 49.6 -- a nearly dead even 50 reading indicating an even split between those purchasers reporting contracting conditions and those reporting expanding conditions. New orders show a similar result, up 6 tenths to 50.2 and boosted as they were in Tuesday's ISM report on the manufacturing sector by strength in export orders, in this case spiking 8-1/2 point to 55.0. The gain on the new order side helps to offset a 2 point dip in backlog orders to 47.5.
A negative in the report, as it was for manufacturing, is costs where prices paid are rising with the index in this report up nearly 3 points to 70.8. But the reading at least isn't as high as the plus 80 reading seen for manufacturing. Supplier deliveries are not showing any stress, a big plus for the inflation outlook reflecting slower demand and indicating a lack of shortages. Inventory data are stable.
The dollar firmed while Treasury yields rose in immediate reaction to the results which are likely to give a lift to the stock market through the session.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
The business activity index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey surprisingly showed some moderate improvement in February, reaching back up into positive territory at 50.8 from January's 41.9. New orders posted a similar gain but just falling short of breakeven at 49.5, well up from 43.5 in January. Costs remained elevated with prices paid down a slight 3 points to 67.9.
Business activity index Consensus Forecast for March 08: 49.0 Range: 47.5 to 51.1
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Trends
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Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial
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