2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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New Home Sales
Definition
New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. Why Investors Care

Released on 10/25/07 For Sep 2007
New Home Sales - Level - SAAR
 Actual 770,000  
 Consensus 770,000  
 Consensus Range 740,000  to  814,000  
 Previous 795,000  

Highlights
New home sales rebounded in September but partly due to a sharp downward revision to August sales. New home sales in September rebounded 4.8 percent to an annualized rate of 770,000 after falling 7.9 percent in August. The August sales pace was revised down to 735,000 from the initial estimate of 795,000. Year-on-year sales were down 23.3 percent in the month. The comeback in September was led by a 37.7 percent boost in the West with the South rising 0.5 percent. The Northeast and Midwest posted declines of 6.6 percent and 19.5 percent, respectively.

Supply on the market improved somewhat but it is hard to see given the magnitude of the glut. Months supply eased to 8.3 from 9.0 months in August. The median sales price firmed somewhat with a 2.5 percent rebound in September to $238,000 from $232,100 in August. The median sales price is down 2.8 percent year-on-year.

The rebound in new home sales can only be viewed cautiously as August was revised down and there remains a glut of unsold homes. Earlier this week, the existing home sales report was far more negative. Essentially, it is too early to claim that housing has bottomed.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
New home sales dropped a whopping 8.3 percent in August to an annual rate of 795,000. The recent credit crunch, tightened lending standards, and consumer nervousness clearly have weighed on new home sales. Year-on-year sales were down 21.2 percent in the month. As with existing home sales, supply on the market rose sharply to 8.2 months from 7.6 months in July. The supply glut is hurting new home prices more than existing home prices. The median sales price fell 8.3 percent in August to $225,700 from $246,200 in July. The median sales price is down 7.5 percent year-on-year.

New home sales Consensus Forecast for September 07: 0.770 million-unit rate
Range: 0.740 million to 0.814 million-unit rate
Trends
[Chart] There is no question that lower interest rates boost home sales. Other factors also impact housing decisisions, such as employment and income growth, and wealth stemming from stock market gains.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/26 2/28 3/26 4/25 5/24 6/26 7/26 8/24 9/27 10/25 11/29 12/28
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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