New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 12/4/08 For wk 11/29 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims eased slightly in the Nov. 29 week but continue to indicate recessionary conditions. Initial claims fell 21,000 to 509,000 (prior week revised slightly to 530,000 from 529,000). But the four-week average continues to climb, up 6,250 to 524,500 for the worst level since the early 80s. Continuing claims are a big negative, continuing their climb to levels also not seen since the early 80s: +89,000 to over 4 million, at 4.087 million. There were no special factors in the week and no reaction to the results.
Initial jobless claims fell back in the latest data but were still at highs not seen since the 1991 and 1983 recessions. Initial claims, in data for the November 22 week, slipped 14,000 to 529,000, compared a revised 543,000 in the prior week. The November 15 week may have been temporarily boosted by the Veterans' Day holiday and difficulty seasonally adjusting weekly numbers. Nonetheless, initial claims remain very high and point to further worsening in payroll data.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/4/08: 529,000
Range: 525,000 to 550,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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