New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/26/08 For wk 11/22 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The number of jobless claims, both initial and continuing, fell back in the latest data but are still at highs not seen since the 1991 and 1983 recessions. Initial claims, in data for the Nov. 22 week, fell 14,000 to 529,000 vs. a revised 543,000 in the prior week (542,000 first reported). Continuing claims, in data for the Nov. 15 week, fell 54,000 to 3.962 million.
The Nov. 15 week is the survey week for the Bureau of Labor Statistic's monthly household employment survey, and a month-to-month comparison with survey weeks shows, despite declines in today's report, significant increases from October. Today's report won't shake up expectations for next week's monthly employment report where early calls are looking for a roughly 250,000 decline in non-farm payrolls.
Initial jobless claims have begun to soar with first-time jobless claims jumping nearly 30,000 to 542,000 for the week ending November 15 - the highest level since 1992. There were no special factors to explain the jump though the reporting week was a holiday shortened week (Veterans Day). Continuing claims confirm the weakening job market. Continuing claims for the November 8 week jumped 109,000 to 4.012 million, the highest since 1982.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 11/22/08: 537,000
Range: 495,000 to 560,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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