New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/13/08 For wk 11/8 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims are spiking to indicate that contraction in the labor market is accelerating. Initial claims for the Nov. 8 week jumped 32,000 to 516,000 for a seven-year high with the four-week average up 13,250 to 491,000 for a 17-year high (claims for the Nov. 1 week were revised to 484,000). In arguably the worst news, continuing claims for the Nov. 1 week rose 65,000 to 3.897 million for a 25-year high!
There are no special factors to explain away the increases being registered. Companies are laying off workers at an increasing rate. Money moved into the Treasury market and out of the dollar but in only limited reaction to the report.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 1 were little changed but the latest continuing claims jumped sharply. Initial claims edged down 4,000 in the latest week to 481,000 - remaining at an elevated level. Importantly, claims related to hurricanes in late August and early September were not notable factors. But continuing claims are pointing to a worsening in the labor markets. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 122,000 in the October 25 week to a 25-year high of 3.843 million.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 11/8/08: 482,000
Range: 475,000 to 500,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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