New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/6/08 For wk 11/1 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 122,000 in the Oct. 25 week to a 25-year high of 3.843 million, the biggest headline in the weekly claims report and pointing to continued contraction in the labor market. The four-week average for continuing claims, at 3.754 million, is also a 25-year high.
Initial claims for the Nov. 1 week were little changed at 481,000 as was the four-week average at 477,000. The Labor Department told Market News International that claims related to hurricanes in late August and early September are no longer a factor in the data.
These results, especially continuing claims, point squarely at increasing deterioration in the labor market and will not improve expectations for what looks to be another weak employment report on Friday. In limited reaction, money moved into Treasuries and out of the dollar.
Initial jobless claims held steady in the week ending October 25, unchanged at 479,000. Nonetheless, this is a high level which has been boosted in recent weeks by the continuing effects from hurricanes. There could be some easing as workers in hurricane hit areas get back to work. But growing concerns over recession could lead employers to hand out more pink slips.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 11/1/08: 480,000
Range: 460,000 to 500,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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