New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/30/08 For wk 10/25 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Jobless claims held steady, unchanged at 479,000 for initial claims in the Oct. 25 week and down a slight 12,000 for continuing claims to 3.715 million in the Oct. 18 week. Both are at recessionary levels.
Month-to-month comparisons, which offer a glimpse at next week's monthly employment report, point to continued erosion showing increases for initial claims and especially continuing claims. Judging initial claims has been hard due to hurricanes effects which are now winding down. Hurricanes added 7,500 to unadjusted initial claims in the latest week.
Markets were showing limited reaction to this morning's 8:30 data that of course is headlined by a 0.3 percent decline in third-quarter GDP. Today's claims data point unfortunately to continued recession in the jobs market.
Initial jobless claims rose 15,000 in the week ending October 18 week from 463,000 in the prior week. A minor positive, continuing claims fell back 6,000 for the October 11 week. Hurricanes were still inflating the numbers, adding 12,000 to the unadjusted initial claims total of 415,000. But overall, the trend is a slowly worsening labor market. Unfortunately, the weakness may be accelerating based on recent mass lay-off reports.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/25/08: 475,000
Range: 460,000 to 500,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}