Highlights
The labor market continues to contract. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 in the Oct. 18 week vs. an upwardly revised 463,000 in the prior week (initial level 461,000). Continuing claims fell back 6,000 in data for the Oct. 11 week but the four-week average, at 3.680 million, jumped to its highest level since early in the 2001 expansion. Hurricanes are inflating the numbers, adding 12,000 to the unadjusted initial claims total of 415,000 (a level well below the adjusted total and reflecting the holiday week).

These results, skewed or not, hint at payroll losses beyond trend. This time last month, the report showed initial claims averaging under 450,000, well under the current four-week average of more than 480,000. Continuing claims are up nearly 200,000. There was little initial reaction to the results which however do not improve the economic outlook.