New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/16/08 For wk 10/11 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Claims news is mixed, a plus given the completely negative run of data on the labor market. Initial claims in the Oct. 11 week fell back a sizable 16,000 to 461,000 despite continued hurricane effects including a 12,000 weekly gain in Texas alone. Data on other hurricane effects are not available. Now the bad news. The four-week average rose slightly to 438,250 for its highest level since October of the 2001 recession. Continuing claims are at their highest since 2003, up 40,000 in the Oct. 4 week to 3.711 million. Today's data, if nothing more, should ease concern that job contraction is accelerating. Markets showed no significant initial reaction to today's 8:30 data.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 4, fell 20,000 to 478,000. The decline is likely due to the facing of hurricane effects which had boosted levels in recent weeks. Despite the decline - the first in four weeks - claims are at recessionary levels.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/11/08: 475,000
Range: 445,000 to 500,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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