New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/9/08 For wk 10/4 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims data are mixed in what is an improvement from three weeks of alarming results. First-time claims for the Oct. 4 week fell back 20,000 to 478,000, near the four-week average of 482,500. These are still recessionary levels but the weekly decline is the first in four weeks. Hurricane effects, which are now fading, were one reason behind prior increases. Unfortunately continuing claims continue to pile up, up 56,000 in the Sep. 27 week to a recessionary 3.659 million. Stability in the labor market would be a major plus for the financial markets but the jobs outlook is still troubling, hurt by slowing economic growth and what will be rising layoffs in the financial sector. Financial markets showed little reaction to the results.
Initial jobless claims remain at multiyear highs as the lingering effects of Gulf Coast hurricanes and further weakening in economic conditions have boosted the numbers seeking unemployment relief. The level of first-time claims nudged up by another 1,000 to 497,000 in the week ending September 27 from 496,000 in the prior week. The Labor Department estimates hurricane effects added 57,000 to the latest total. The 497,000 level for first-time claims is a multi-year high, going back further to before the recovery in the recession of 2001. But even excluding hurricane effects, the level of claims is high.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/4/08: 480,000
Range: 445,000 to 515,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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