New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 9/25/08 For wk 9/20 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Hurricanes Gustav and Ike badly skewed jobless claims, pushing initial claims for the Sep. 20 week up 32,000 to a recessionary level of 493,000. But excluding hurricanes, claims would be at a much less severe level of 430,000. Continuing claims rose 63,000 to yet another multi-year high of 3.542 million. Both initial and continuing claims are being pushed higher by emergency efforts to extend benefits. Markets paid no attention to today's 8:30 a.m. ET data, focused instead on negotiations to pass a mortgage-securities bailout.
Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 in the week ending September 13 to a 455,000. The four-week average rose 5,000 to 445,000. It appears that the bump up in initial claims is related to a jump in filings from Louisiana, the result of Hurricane Gustav and the inability of residents to file during the prior two weeks. But there is still uncertainty over the general direction of claims due to likely filings related to Hurricane Ike and the government's emergency efforts to widen those eligible for unemployment benefits.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/20/08: 445,000
Range: 425,000 to 480,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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