2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 9/18/08 For wk 9/13 2008
New Claims - Level
 Actual 455K  
 Consensus 440K  
 Consensus Range 400K  to  450K  
 Previous 445 K  

Highlights
First-time jobless claims rose 10,000 in the Sep. 13 week to a roughly as-expected 455,000. The four-week average rose 5,000 to 445,000. The Labor Department told Market News International that first-time claims would have fallen in the week excluding a jump in filings from Louisiana, the result of Hurricane Gustav and the inability of residents to file during the prior two weeks. But this report is clouded by other uncertainties including filings related to Hurricane Ike and the government's emergency efforts to widen those eligible for unemployment benefits.

Still, some readings in the report appear to justify some hope that losses in the labor market are not increasing. Continuing claims in the Sep. 6 week fell 55,000 to 3.478 million. Improvement in continuing claims for the Sep. 13 week, a key week that matches the Labor Department's survey week for the household employment report, could help establish expectations for improvement in September payrolls. A month-to-month comparison of survey weeks for first-time claims is mixed, showing a 20,000 rise from the Aug. 16 week but a slight drop in the four-week averages. Markets, focused on liquidity in the banking system, showed no significant reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims eased back by 6,000 in the week ending September 6 to 445,000, bumping the four-week average down slightly to 439,750. Nonetheless, the latest numbers still indicate a soft labor market. Initial claims are still under peaks of about 475,000 in the 2001 recession and 500,000 in the 1991 recession.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/13/08: 440,000
Range: 400,000 to 450,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

 
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