New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 9/11/08 For wk 9/6 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims eased back but still indicate weak conditions in the labor market. Initial claims fell 6,000 in the Sept. 6 week to 445,000 against a revised 451,000 in the prior week, pushing the four-week average down slightly to 439,750. Initial claims are still under peaks of about 475,000 in the 2001 recession and 500,000 in the 1991 recession. These peaks were followed by later peaks in the unemployment rate.
The bad news in the report is a big jump of 122,000 in continuing claims to a very elevated 3.525 million in data for the Aug. 30 week. Continuing claims are still under, at least for now, their prior peaks of 3.7 million in the jobless recovery of 2003 and 3.5 million in 1991.
There were no special factors affecting the latest data which do not improve the economic outlook and may weigh on the dollar and the stock market through the session.
Initial jobless claims jumped 15,000 in the week ended August 30 to a much higher-than-expected level of 444,000 though the four-week average did slip back 3,250 to 438,000. Continuing claims for the August 23 week indicate that ongoing conditions in the labor market are weak with a 6,000 increase to another multi-year high of 3.435 million.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/6/08: 440,000
Range: 430,000 to 454,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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