New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 8/28/08 For wk 8/23 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell back an as-expected 10,000 in the Aug. 23 week to 425,000, pulling the four-week average down by 6,000 to 440,250. There are no new details on the effect of government efforts to widen availability of benefits. Whatever improvement there is in initial claims is offset by another jump in continuing claims, up 64,000 to 3.423 million and a new nearly five-year high. A comparison with survey weeks in the Labor Department's monthly household report shows a very steep 326,000 rise in continuing claims and a 63,000 rise in initial claims. The rise in initial claims is skewed by the benefit program but the rise in continuing claims points squarely to trouble for the August employment report.
Initial jobless claims eased back in the week ending August 16, slipping 13,000 to 432,000. Continuing claims for the previous week also fell back, declining 17,000 to 3.362 million. Levels in both series remain very high, consistent with the ongoing contraction in payroll jobs. Nonetheless, initial claims data over the past several weeks have been skewed higher by Washington's counter-cyclical effort to widen eligibility for benefits and the magnitude of the impact is largely unknown. The Labor Department said the program is affecting claims but to an unknown degree.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 8/23/08: 427,000
Range: 410,000 to 430,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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