2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 8/21/08 For wk 8/16 2008
New Claims - Level
 Actual 432K  
 Consensus 448K  
 Consensus Range 430K  to  458K  
 Previous 450 K  

Highlights
Jobless claims eased back, down 13,000 for initial claims to 432,000 and down 17,000 for continuing claims to 3.362 million. Both levels remain very high, consistent with continued contraction in payrolls. The four-week average for initial claims rose 7,250 in the Aug. 16 week to 445,750, a level that is nearly 70,000 higher than the July 12 week -- a comparison between survey weeks of the monthly household employment survey. But initial claims data over the past several weeks have been skewed higher by Washington's counter-cyclical effort to widen eligibility for benefits. The Labor Department said the program is affecting claims but to an unknown degree. The four-week average for continuing claims rose nearly 70,000 to 3.330 million for a nearly five-year high. The dollar firmed and Treasury yields rose, both only briefly, in reaction to the headline decline in initial claims. Otherwise, the report points to another month of disappointment for the next employment report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims are remaining very levels - due to a weakening job market and to a recent extension of unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims fell back 10,000 in the week ending August 9, but to a still much higher-than-expected level of 450,000. Initial claims over the past two weeks have been at the highest levels since the beginning of the expansion.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 8/16/08: 448,000
Range: 430,000 to 458,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

 
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