New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 7/10/08 For wk 7/5 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Initial jobless claims showed surprising improvement, down 58,000 in the July 5 week to a 346,000 level that's the lowest since mid-April. The reporting week is of course a holiday week which typically makes for large swings and puts special emphasis on the four-week average which came in at 380,500 for a 10,000 decline. But not all the news is good as continuing claims, in data for the June 28 week, jumped 91,000 to 3.202 million for the highest reading in five years.
Treasury yields rose briefly in immediate reaction to the big headline drop in initial claims before settling back to pre-data levels. Readings in subsequent weeks this month will be affected by retoolings in the auto industry, a factor that will distort this report's indications on the labor market.
Initial jobless claims rose 16,000 in the week ending June 28 to 404,000 - the worst reading in three months. The soft economy is not doing much to help get the unemployed back to work as continuing claims for the June 21 week remained above the 3.0 million mark, at 3.116 million for a 19,000 decline. The four-week average stood at 3.111 million.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 7/5/08: 399,000
Range: 390,000 to 400,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}