New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/26/08 For wk 6/21 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims are elevated but not severely with initial claims unchanged in the June 21 week at 384,000 and continuing claims reversing the prior week's drop with an 82,000 rise to a four-year high of 3.139 million in data for the June 14 week. Initial claims peaked at about 450,000 in the 2001 and 1991 recessions with continuing claims peaking in both recessions at about 3.5 million.
There were no special factors in the latest week though initial claims in Iowa were higher than usual because of flooding-related work stoppages. A month-to-month comparison with the mid-month survey week for the household employment sample shows a 16,000 increase for initial claims and a 30,000 increase in continuing claims. There was no reaction to the report which is consistent with still moderate contraction in payrolls.
Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 in the week ending June 14 to 381,000. The four-week average rose 3,250 to 375,250, slightly higher than at the same time last month. Continuing claims for the April 19 week fell 76,000 but were still above 3 million at 3.06 million. Overall, the labor market remains soft.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/21/08: 380,000
Range: 375,000 to 386,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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