New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/19/08 For wk 6/14 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The jobs market is weak but at least steady, the latest indication from the initial jobless claims level which came in at 381,000 for the June 14 week, down 5,000 from the prior week. There were no special factors in the week, which is also the week for the monthly household employment survey. A month-to-month comparison with the same week in May shows an increase of 13,000 -- a comparison that points to another month of incremental contraction in payrolls. The four-week average rose 3,250 to 375,250, slightly higher than this time last month. Continuing claims for the April 19 week fell 76,000 but are still above 3 million at 3.06 million. The results aren't that great but are enough apparently to improve the outlook given initial market response including a firming in the dollar and a small increase in Treasury yields.
Initial jobless claims jumped 25,000 in the week ending June 7 to 384,000 -- the highest level since late March. But the spike may be due to seasonal adjustment difficulties as the week followed the Memorial holiday week. Continuing claims, in data for the May 31 week, also rose, up 58,000 to 3.139 million for the highest level in more than 4 years.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/14/08: 375,000
Range: 375,000 to 395,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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