New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/12/08 For wk 6/7 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Weekly jobless claims jumped 25,000 in the June 7 week to 384,000 and the highest level since late March. But, according to a Market News International report, the Labor Department is warning that the rise is not a "structural shift" higher but is tied in part to a calendar effect surrounding the Memorial holiday weekend. The four-week average is an important gauge and has remained relatively stable since late March, currently at 371,500 and a level that has proven consistent with mild erosion in overall payrolls. Continuing claims, in data for the May 31 week, also rose, up 58,000 to 3.139 million for the highest level in more than 4 years. Given the calendar effects, this report may not have much impact on the financial markets, but next week's report will be closely watched to see if deterioration is accelerating.
Initial jobless claims fell a steep 18,000 in the week ending May 31 to 357,000, pushing for the four-week average down to 368,500. Continuing claims remain too high but did fall 16,000 in the May 24 week to 3.093 million. The latest report strongly suggests that the labor market is stabilizing. Additionally, we should see some positive effects on claims from American Axle strikers returning to work over this week and the next. But the relatively benign claims numbers are a sharp contrast to the jump in the unemployment rate in the May employment situation report. Markets will be watching the claims numbers for clues as to whether the May spike in the unemployment rate was a fluke or not.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/7/08: 365,000
Range: 360,000 to 375,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}