New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/5/08 For wk 5/31 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims dropped a steep 18,000 in the May 31 week to 357,000, pushing for the four-week average down to 368,500. Continuing claims remain too high but did fall 16,000 in the May 24 week to 3.093 million. The Labor Department told Market News International there were no special factors in the week and that returning workers indirectly affected by the American Axle strike will begin affecting claims over the next two weeks.
This report is a positive, showing some improvement in the labor market and suggesting that levels will be held down in future weeks by returning auto workers. The shortened Memorial Day week for initial claims will limit the impact of this report on the financial markets, which nevertheless did move slightly on the results with the dollar firming and Treasury yields rising.
Initial jobless claims were little changed in the week ending May 24 week, rising 4,000 to a 372,000 level and pointing to continued but not deepening weakness in the labor market. But continuing claims may be pointing to greater weakness, jumping 36,000 for the week ending May 17 to 3.104 million for a level that is about 100,000 higher than April.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/31/08: 374,000
Range: 368,000 to 385,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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