New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/22/08 For wk 5/17 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Weekly jobless claims point to steady conditions in the labor market, suggesting that May's employment report won't show deepening weakness. Initial claims fell 9,000 in the May 17 week to 365,000, an improvement from this time last month when claims were at 375,000. The May 17 week is important as it's the survey week for the household employment sample of the monthly employment report. A look at the comparable four-week averages also shows improvement, currently at 372,250 vs. 376,750 in the April 12 week. Continuing claims data, the most recent for the May 10 week, are elevated but steady, at 3.073 million and unchanged in the week. Continuing claims were at or near 3 million through April. The dollar firmed and Treasury yields moved higher in immediate reaction to the data.
Initial jobless claims continue to show softening conditions in the labor market. Initial claims rose 6,000 in the week ending May 10 to a 371,000 level that is a bit above the four-week average of 365,750. Continuing claims also moved higher, up 28,000 in the week ending May 3 - to 3.060 million and a new four-year high.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/17/08: 370,000
Range: 360,000 to 380,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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