New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/15/08 For wk 5/10 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims data show perhaps softening conditions in the labor market. Initial claims rose 6,000 in the May 10 week to a 371,000 level that is a bit above the four-week average of 365,750. Continuing claims also moved higher, up 28,000 in the May 3 week to 3.060 million and a new four-year high. Increases in the latest data are minor but certainly don't point to improvement for May payroll data. The dollar and Treasury yields dipped in immediate reaction to the results which were accompanied at 8:30 a.m. ET by a soft Empire State headline.
Initial jobless claims swung back lower in the week ending May, falling 18,000 to 365,000 but still indicate a soft labor market. Week-to-week data have been very choppy since March, making the four-week average a more important reading and the average came in right at the level of the latest week, at 367,000 for a 2,500 week-to-week rise. The latest four-week average is still well above the cycle low of about 285,000 in 2006 but still well below the 2001 recession peak of about 490,000.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/10/08: 370,000
Range: 360,000 to 380,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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