New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/8/08 For wk 5/3 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims swung back lower in the May 3 week, down 18,000 to 365,000. There were no special factors in the latest week. Week-to-week data have been very choppy since March, making the four-week average a more important reading. And the average is right at the level of the latest week, at 367,000 for a 2,500 week-to-week rise. Continuing claims, in data for the April 26 week, fell 10,000 to 3.020 million with the 4-week average up nearly 17,000 to 2.999 million for its highest level in four years. Today's report is consistent with last week's payroll data for April which showed soft conditions in the labor market but not worsening conditions consistent with recession. There was no reaction to the results.
Initial jobless claims jumped 35,000 in the week ending April 26 380,000, indicating that the economy is still sluggish and that firms are in a cost cutting mood. Continuing claims, in data for the April 19 week, jumped 74,000 and at 3.019 million were above the 3 million level for the first time in four years. But the claims numbers are volatile and the four-week averages are showing less weakness with initial claims down 6,500 to 363,750 and with the average for continuing claims still below 3 million at 2.979 million.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/3/08: 370,000
Range: 355,000 to 390,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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