New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/1/08 For wk 4/26 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims are on the rise indicating weakening conditions in the labor market. Initial claims jumped 35,000 in the April 26 week to 380,000 in a gain that was not tied to any special factors. Continuing claims, in data for the April 19 week, jumped 74,000 and at 3.019 million are above the 3 million level for the first time in four years. Four-week averages are showing less weakness with initial claims down 6,500 to 363,750 and still well below the 400,000 level and with the average for continuing claims still below 3 million at 2.979 million. The survey weeks for today's data fall outside the survey week of the household survey and won't have much effect on expectations for tomorrow's employment report. But the results are still bad news that will hopefully reverse in the weeks ahead. There was no reaction to the results.
Initial jobless claims dropped a surprising 33,000 in the April 19 week to 342,000 for the lowest rate in two months. But recent initial claims have been volatile as the latest drop pushed the four-week average down by only 7,000 to 369,500. The improvement in initial claims was confirmed by continuing claims which fell 65,000 to 2.934 million for the April 12 week.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/26/08: 360,000
Range: 352,000 to 370,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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