New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/24/08 For wk 4/19 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
In surprising improvement in the jobs market, initial jobless claims dropped 33,000 in the April 19 week to 342,000 for the lowest rate in two months. Market News International said there were no special factors behind the drop. But one week's data weren't enough to push the four-week average much lower, at 369,500 for a modest decline of about 7,000. The improvement in initial claims was confirmed by improvement in continuing claims which fell 65,000 to 2.934 million in data for the April 12 week.
Treasury yields and the dollar both rose in immediate reaction to this report which was accompanied at 8:30 a.m. ET by mixed headlines for durable goods data. Improvement in jobless claims will have to be confirmed by improvement in future weeks, but for the markets the data offer rare good news on the economy.
Initial jobless claims have been volatile but on average are reflecting a worsening in the backbone of the consumer sector as initial claims spiked back up in the week ending April 12, jumping 17,000 to a 372,000 level that is right at the four-week average of 376,000. These levels point to another month of trouble for payroll data. Continuing claims were also higher, up 26,000 in the April 5 week to 2.984 million for the highest reading in nearly four years.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/19/08: 375,000
Range: 375,000 to 380,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}