New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/17/08 For wk 4/12 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Initial jobless claims spiked back up in the April 12 week, up 17,000 to a 372,000 level that is right at the four-week average of 376,000. These levels point to another month of trouble for payroll data. Continuing claims are also higher, up 26,000 in the April 5 week to 2.984 million for the highest reading in nearly four years. There were no special factors, not even the auto sector strike, affecting the data. There was no significant reaction to the data which however are clearly a negative for the economic outlook.
Initial jobless claims swung back lower in the week ending April 5 declining by 53,000 to a comparatively solid 357,000 level. Recently volatile readings likely have been affected by seasonal adjustment difficulties. The latest week's decline was the largest fall in 2-1/2 years. Markets will continue to watch the claims numbers for signs that the labor market is not worsening. While most agree that the U.S. has entered a dip in economic activity early this year, there is uncertainty whether the decline will be long enough to become a recession and the strength of the labor sector will be critical in that determination.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/12/08: 375,000
Range: 360,000 to 385,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}