2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 4/10/08 For wk 4/5 2008
New Claims - Level
 Actual 357K  
 Consensus 386K  
 Consensus Range 375K  to  410K  
 Previous 407 K  

Highlights
Initial jobless claims swung back lower in the April 5 week to a comparatively solid 357,000 level in a choppy reading likely affected by seasonal adjustments. The Labor Department said there were no special factors in the week. Claims fell 53,000 in the week for the largest fall in 2-1/2 years. The four-week average is very important here and shows an elevated reading of 378,250 for a level that still points to trouble for underlying payroll growth. Continuing claims for the March 29 week edged higher to 2.940 million.

The claims data were released along with a wider-than-expected trade gap report, but this report is likely to rebuild confidence in the jobs outlook -- a plus for stocks and the dollar and pointing to higher interest rates in the Treasury market.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims spiked 38,000 in the week ending March 29 to 407,000 for the worst reading since Hurricane Katrina in September 2005. Continuing claims also confirmed trouble in the labor market, jumping 97,000 to 2.937 million in data for the March 22 week and the highest reading since mid 2004. The sudden leap of initial claims over the 400,000 level breached a psychological barrier and has raised concern about the depth of current economic weakness. Dipping back below 400,000 would be a boost to equity markets.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/5/08: 386,000
Range: 375,000 to 410,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

 
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