2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 3/27/08 For wk 3/22 2008
New Claims - Level
 Actual 366K  
 Consensus 370K  
 Consensus Range 360K  to  385K  
 Previous 378 K  

Highlights
Initial jobless claims improved in the March 22 week, down 9,000 to 366,000 despite what looks to be strike-related auto claims in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri. The current level is near the four-week average of 358,000 which is up from the roughly 350,000 level through February and which, unfortunately, points to continued if not greater weakness for March payroll data. Continuing claims are also pointing to trouble though they dipped very slightly in the March 15 week to 2.845 million. Continuing claims are above the roughly 2.800 million level seen through February. Though the results point to weakness in the jobs market they don't point to greater weakness and the results indicate only limited impact from the strike at American Axle. The dollar appeared to firm in reaction to this morning's 8:30 a.m. ET data which included an as-expected no change revision to fourth quarter GDP.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the week ending March 15 week with initial claims jumping 22,000 to 378,000. Some of the latest increase is due to an ongoing strike at American Axle which has shut down production plants at General Motors. But weakness is evident with continuing claims confirming trouble, up 32,000 in the week ending March 8 to 2.865 million. The latest initial claims numbers fall on the same week as the surveys for the monthly jobs report and point to another disappointing employment report for March.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/22/08: 370,000
Range: 360,000 to 385,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

 
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