New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/20/08 For wk 3/15 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
In the latest bad news for the economy, jobless claims spiked higher in the March 15 week. Initial claims jumped to 378,000, up 22,000 in the week and up 24,000 vs. a month ago which offers a survey week comparison for the household employment report. There is a special factor as Market News International, citing the Labor Department, reports that an ongoing strike at American Axle has shut down production at General Motors.
But weakness is evident with continuing claims confirming trouble, up 32,000 in the March 8 week to 2.865 million. These results, inflated by the strike or not, point ominously to another disappointing employment report. Treasury yields and the dollar dipped in immediate reaction to the results.
Initial jobless claims are still on the high side but at least are holding somewhat steady and not worsening. Initial claims were unchanged in the week ending March 8 at 353,000, a bit better than the four-week average of 358,500 but still indicating soft conditions in the labor market. Continuing claims were also little changed, up 7,000 to 2.835 million that also indicates softness.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/15/08: 360,000
Range: 345,000 to 370,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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