New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/13/08 For wk 3/9 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims were unchanged in the March 8 week at 353,000, a bit better than the four-week average of 358,500 but still indicating soft conditions in the labor market. Continuing claims were also little changed, up 7,000 to 2.835 million that also indicates soft conditions. There were no special factors in the data.
Initial jobless claims have improved recently but continuing claims remain on the high side, suggesting that the labor sector is still leaning toward the soft side. Initial claims for the week ending March 1 improved a bit more than expected, to a 351,000 level that is a 24,000 decrease. The four-week average fell slightly to 351,000. However, continuing claims for the week ending February 23 rose 29,000 to 2.831 million -- the highest level in 2-1/2 years. Most recently, the claims numbers are pointing to a mild softening in employment rather than sharp declines. The February payroll numbers came in with a decline of 63,000 but that is actually moderate for an economic contraction. Markets will continue to give the claims numbers close attention during this potential turning point in the economy -- especially to see if the Fed's interest rate cuts are starting to work.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/8/08: 358,000
Range: 352,000 to 364,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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