New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/6/08 For wk 3/2 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial claims for the March 1 week improved a bit more than expected, to a 351,000 level that is a 24,000 decrease but compared against the distortions of a holiday shortened week. There were no special factors in the latest week. The four-week average fell slightly to 351,000. Continuing claims for the Feb. 23 week rose 29,000 to 2.831 million -- the highest level in 2-1/2 years. Tomorrow will offer definitive information on the jobs market but today's jobless claims report, a leading indicator for the monthly employment report, is indicating soft results.
Initial jobless claims rose 19,000 in the week ending February 23 to a very elevated level of 373,000. The February 23 week was a shortened holiday week, which places special importance on the four-week average which actually slipped slightly but to a still well elevated 360,500. Continuing claims also signaled weak conditions, jumping 21,000 in the February 16 week to 2.807 million. The labor market clearly appears to be softening, but not dramatically.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/1/08: 360,000
Range: 355,000 to 370,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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