New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/21/08 For wk 2/16 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell 9,000 in the Feb. 16 week but the 349,000 level points squarely at soft labor conditions. There were no special factors in the latest week. The four-week average is the biggest headline of this report and likely the biggest headline for today's markets -- up 10,750 to 360,500 and the worst level since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Continuing claims, in data for the Feb. 9 week, are confirming the bad news, up 48,000 to 2.784 million and also the worst level since Katrina.
The Feb. 16 week is also the survey week for the monthly household employment survey and a comparison with the January week shows a very steep rise of 49,000. But this comparison is skewed higher by seasonal adjustment problems in the early part of January that were reversed later in the month. Nevertheless, today's report is certain to dim expectations for the February employment report, data to be released the week after next.
Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 in the week ending February 9 week to 348,000, a level in line with the four-week average of 347,250 and one unfortunately pointing to slow payroll growth. Initial claims have eased off of the recent high of 378,000 for the week ending January 26 but those numbers were skewed sharply by seasonal adjustments surrounding January's holidays. Claims data have leveled out but they are still notably above the 300,000 to 325,000 levels that were common before economic growth began slowing late last year.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 2/16/08: 348,000
Range: 335,000 to 360,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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