New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/14/08 For wk 2/9 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless fell 9,000 in the Feb. 9 week to 348,000, a level in line with the four-week average of 347,250 and one unfortunately pointing to slow payroll growth. Continuing claims, down 9,000 in the Feb. 2 week to 2.761 million, are likewise indicating soft conditions. There were no special factors skewing the data in the survey weeks.
But data in prior weeks were skewed and skewed sharply by seasonal adjustments surrounding January's holidays. Now that claims data have leveled out, they appear to be pointing to soft but at least stable conditions in the labor market.
Initial jobless claims eased back 22,000 to a 356,000 level for the week ending February 2 after spiking 72,000 the week before. Though the latest decline is a big improvement from the shocking 378,000 level of the prior week, the current level is way above the 300,000 mark claims sank to at mid January. The initial claims series is a good leading indicator for the economy and markets will be watching to see whether the economy is merely slowing or turning negative.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 2/9/08: 343,000
Range: 330,000 to 392,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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