New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 1/24/08 For wk 1/19 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Federal Reserve may have cited incoming indications of labor softening in its inter-meeting statement on Tuesday, but those indications aren't coming from initial jobless claims which slipped 1,000 in the Jan. 19 week to mark a full month of solid improvement. There were no special factors in the week. The four-week average, as high as 344,500 at Dec. 22, is now down to 314,750 for its best level since October.
Continuing claims are showing less improvement, though they did fall 75,000 in data for the Jan. 12 week. The four-week average did slip back to 2.715 million, but is still just off the prior week's two-year high.
Treasury yields rose and the dollar firmed in immediate reaction to the data which point strongly to solid improvement in January payroll growth.
Initial jobless claims fell 21,000 in the week ending January 12 to 301,000, the lowest level since September. There were no special factors in the week. But the improvement was not confirmed by continuing claims which shot up 66,000 to 2.751 million in data covering the week ending January 5. Continuing claims, again in contrast to initial claims, are at their highest since November 2005.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/19/08: 321,000
Range: 300,000 to 330,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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