New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 1/10/08 For wk 1/5 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell back in the Jan. 5 week to perhaps hint at new strength in the labor market. Initial claims fell 15,000 to 322,000, pushing down the 4-week average to a still high 341,000. Continuing claims, reported for the Dec. 29 week, also showed improvement, down 51,000 to 2.702 million. The data, however, won't have much effect on the financial markets given seasonal adjustment problems during the shortened weeks of the holidays. Attitudes on the labor market will continue to reflect last week's disappointing December jobs report.
Initial jobless claims fell 21,000 in the week ending December 29 to 336,000, pulling down the four-week average slightly to a still elevated 343,750. The Dec. 22 week was revised upward to 357,000 for the highest level in more than two years. While claims have been trending upward, thus far they appear to point to a very soft economy but not yet to a declining economy. Markets will continue to watch the claims data for early warnings of potential recession, but volatility in the data will remain an issue.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/5/08: 340,000
Range: 325,000 to 345,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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