New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 1/3/08 For wk 12/29 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell 21,000 in the Dec. 29 week to 336,000, pulling down the four-week average slightly to a still elevated 343,750. The Dec. 22 week was revised upward to 357,000 for the highest level in more than two years. Continuing claims for the Dec. 22 point to weakness in the job market, up 46,000 to 2.761 million.
Early indications for tomorrow's employment report are mixed. Initial claims did fall steeply in the latest week, a week however outside the mid-month period for the household survey and a week that contrasts with poor results in prior weeks. Continuing claims show weakness at mid-month while today's ADP report also points to weakness. Treasuries and the dollar reacted to the headline strength in the latest week with yields rising slightly and the dollar slipping.
Initial jobless claims edged up 1,000 in the week ending December 22 to 349,000 - a level that suggests a rising unemployment rate and slowing payroll growth. Initial claims have been soft and are a leading indicator for turns in the economy. We will get more of spike in claims if the economy really does head into recession. Hence, these numbers are getting more attention, especially just before the next day's December employment report.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/29/07: 345,000
Range: 340,000 to 353,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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