2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 12/27/07 For wk 12/22 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 349K  
 Consensus 343K  
 Consensus Range 340K  to  345K  
 Previous 346 K  

Highlights
Jobless claims were little changed in the Dec. 22 week, up 1,000 to 349,000 and a level that will raise talk of rising unemployment and slowing payroll growth. The four-week average, important to look at during shortened holiday weeks, is showing a little less softness, down slightly to 342,500. Continuing claims have been clearly showing softness, rising three straight weeks and at a multi-year high of 2.713 million. The 2.713 million level compares with 2.659 million in the Nov. 17 week, a comparison of survey periods for the monthly BLS household survey and offering a hint that the unemployment rate may tick higher in next week's employment report for December. Whether the economy slips into recession next year could very well pivot on the health of the labor market.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 in the week ending December 15 to 346,000. The 346,000 level, along with the four-week average of 343,000, possibly signals some loosening in the labor market when compared to the roughly 320,000 trend for most of the third quarter. However, during the holiday season, these weekly numbers are even more volatile than usual due to the difficulty of seasonally adjusting weekly numbers which are affected in part by when Thanksgiving falls and when subsequent holiday hires and lay-off occur.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/22/07: 343,000
Range: 340,000 to 345,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Soruce: Market News International and Thomson Financial

 
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