New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 12/20/07 For wk 12/15 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 in the Dec. 15 week to a slightly larger-than-expected level of 346,000. The 346,000 level along with the four-week average of 343,000 signal some loosening in the labor market compared to the roughly 320,000 trend for most of the third quarter. The Dec. 15 week is the same week that the Labor Department conducted its monthly household survey with the current level and four-week average more than 10,000 higher than the prior month, results that may raise expectations for a tick higher in the unemployment rate. In data for the Dec. 8 week, continuing claims rose 12,000 to 2.646 million. Continuing claims have likewise been on the climb. Though there were no special factors in the latest week, but claims data over the approaching holiday-shortened weeks may prove jumpy.
Initial jobless claims fell 7,000 in the week ending December 8 to 333,000, pushing down the 4-week average to 338,750. There were no special factors in the week. The numbers continue to portray a moderately tight labor sector.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/15/07: 335,000
Range: 320,000 to 343,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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