New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 12/13/07 For wk 12/8 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell 7,000 in the Dec. 8 week to 333,000, a bit lower than expectations and pushing down the 4-week average to 338,750 in what is good news for the labor market. There were no special factors in the week and seasonal adjustments did not distort the results, according to Market News International which cited a Labor Department analyst. Initial claims had been toying with the 350,000 level and today's results will help ease those concerns. Note that claims are often volatile during the shortened periods in late December and early January, a factor that will limit the impact of these data in the weeks ahead. Continuing claims for the Dec. 1 week were less positive, showing a rise of 38,000 to a high level of 2.639 million. Today's report is positive for the economic outlook but was accompanied by a volatile mix of other data at 8:30 a.m. ET: a jump in retail sales but also a jump in producer prices.
Initial jobless claims fell 15,000 in the week ending December 1 to a less worrisome level of 338,000 that is well below the 350,000 level that claims appeared to be testing in recent weeks. With the big miss by the November ADP report in forecasting November's payroll gain which turned out moderate not robust, the markets will continue to focus on initial claims as one of the more reliable labor market indicators.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/8/07: 337,000
Range: 330,000 to 350,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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